Rusija vs. Ukrajina aka. "Putin - še sladkih 16 let na oblasti?"

Glede uvoza elektrike v nemčijo velja to:

The physical electricity flows do not provide any information on whether the electricity was actually consumed in the country or whether it was forwarded to neighbouring countries as transit electricity. It therefore makes little sense to analyse the individual
countries here.

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/d...

Putin pravi, da ne bo napadel Harkiva, to pomeni le eno, da bo treba Harkiv branit pred zasedbo. Upam, da si Rusi polomijo zobe.

Putin: Ruske sile v Harkovu ustvarjajo tamponsko cono za zaščito ruskih obmejnih regij

Ruski predsednik Vladimir Putin je dejal, da ruske sile, ki napredujejo v ukrajinski pokrajini Harkov, ustvarjajo "tamponsko cono" za zaščito ruskih obmejnih regij. Po njegovih besedah pa Rusija nima namena zasesti mesta Harkov.

https://www.rtvslo.si/svet/vojna-v-ukra...

https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1791331...

High-quality satellite images of the Belbek airfield from MAXAR have appeared, which can be used to identify enemy losses in aviation:

▪️2 MiG-31;
▪️ Su-27;
▪️ MiG-29.

Russians may have evacuated other damaged planes after the attack, so that is the minimum damage.

Also, an S-400 air defense system was completely destroyed, including the radar. This opened the way for last night drone attack on Sevastopol.... expect more drone attacks

Makete ne gorijo tako intenzivno bi rekel.

Telbanc je včeraj ob 15:38:03 izjavil:

OK. Morda so makete ali odsluženi aeroplani... in se ukrajinci zastojn veselijo. Ste slišali za odslužene aeroplane. Take ki so svoje dali skoz.... Mig 29 sigurno je. Samo ugibam. A mislite da je tud ta možnost.

Makete niso, so pa Rusi risali fake avione na pisto. Nekaj škode je, seveda. Predvsem na MIG-31.

Če zmejp pa toliko sočnih tarč, zahod dejansko veže roke ukrajincem s tem, ko ne dovoli napadov na tače v rusiji. Vsaj recimo 100 km v globino.

Rusi so poskusili zasesti harkov že l.2022,ko so jih potem dobili po nosu. Sedaj so si pa kar naenkrst premislili.
Dejansko pa že mesece poskušajo kar se najbolj da zagreniti življenje prebivalcem od katerih so mnogi ravno rusi, ki jih je prišel putin "zaščitit".

23 min, Real Reporter je Konstantin Rožkov, ki je bil pred freelancanjem novinar pri RT

Analyzing Real Reporter and Captured NATO Vehicles

A ima kdo kakšen uvid v to kaj se dogaja v bilohorlivki in vuhledarju? Ta prva je najbolj vzhodna točka, ki jo kontrolirajo Ukrajinci. Ta drugi pa je najbolj JV tocka od UA. Kako uspeva Ukrajincem zadrževati ti dve mesti?

Zanimivo pri teh dveh točkah je ravno to, da premikov ni. In to že dve leti. Kar je kar nenavadno. Pa me je zanimalo če kdo ve kaj delajo tu Ukrajinci drugače

sparklyslo je včeraj ob 19:33:55 izjavil:

Vsaj tu smo na pravi strani zgodovine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

I spoke with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and thanked him for actively supporting the Peace Formula, particularly for confirming his attendance at the Peace Summit in Switzerland.

We also discussed our ongoing defense cooperation. Our teams are finalizing their work on a bilateral security agreement based on the G7 Vilnius Declaration. We agreed to sign it at the earliest opportunity.

I am also confident that we can count on Slovenia's support for the practical start of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/179150...

Ne vem sicer, ce smo res na pravi strani zgodovine, me pa vsekakor zanima od kod Golobu in vladi mandat, da vstopa v nekaksne varnostne sporazume s tretjimi drzavami, ki niso clanice EU in ne NATA. In kaksne bodo obveznosti Slovenije v tem sporazumu? Ali je to kje objavljeno in ali ni to zadeva, ki jo mora odobriti drzavni zbor?

nitka, razlaga svojo pozicijo iz članka v Foreign Affairs

https://x.com/Stanovaya/status/17915344...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1791...

...

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine.

Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls.

...

So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable:

1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an "ironclad" ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.

2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a "friendly" regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”

3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks.

The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions.

avani12 je včeraj ob 20:10:43 izjavil:

A ima kdo kakšen uvid v to kaj se dogaja v bilohorlivki in vuhledarju? Ta prva je najbolj vzhodna točka, ki jo kontrolirajo Ukrajinci. Ta drugi pa je najbolj JV tocka od UA. Kako uspeva Ukrajincem zadrževati ti dve mesti?

IMO Taktično. Če bi hoteli ozemlje zasesti na silo, bi to pomenilo velike izgube v živi sili zaradi specifike reliefa.

Belogorevka
Če gledaš karto https://liveuamap.com/, kjer relief ni razviden se zdi res čudno. Dejansko pa so se Rusi tam ustavili na vrhu vzpetin. Severno je več kot 10km široka nižina z reko Donetsk, ki poteka od zahoda proti vzhodu. Belogorovka je rudnik v dolinici in Rusi so na hribih (gričih) okoli te doline na severu, vzhodu in jugu. Mesto Seversk (67m), 10km jugo vzhodno od Belogorovke. Tam Rusi kontrolirajo vrhove na vzhodu (220m, 234m), ne pa dveh vrhov na jugu pri Razdolevki in Vjemki in zahodno od Severska tudi ne.
Če hočejo zasesti ta del (Belogorevka, Seversk), rabijo vrha pri Razdolevki in Vjemki in tam tudi potekajo boji.
Zahodno od Severska se nahaja vzpetina (182m), ki bi (bo) na koncu za Ruse predstavljala problem, kjer bi verjetno izgubili veliko žive sile, saj je Ukrajincem dostopna z zahoda.
Južno od Razdolevke je Bakhmut in zahodno od Bakhmuta je Časiv Jar (220m). Od Časiv Jara severno in južno po vrhu vzpetine (220m) poteka več kot 60km dolg kanal Seversk-Donetsk-Donbas. Od kanala proti zahodu se potem relief spušča do mest Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk in Slovjansk, ki so vsi pod koto 100m.
Za Ruse je ključni Časiv Jar, saj lahko potem fronto prestavijo na kanal Seversk-Donetsk-Donbas in prekinejo dobavo za Seversk in Belogorevko. In potem z višjih položajev oblegajo mesta Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk in Slovjansk.

Vugledar
Severozahodno od Pavlovke (100m) je vzpetina (200m) v smeri vzhod-zahod, ki jo kotrolirajo Ukrajinci. Severozahodno od Konstantinovke (100m) je vzpetina (200m) v smeri vzhod-zahod, ki jo kotrolirajo Ukrajinci. Rusi so na vzpetinah na zahodu (200 do 240m), ki potekajo v smeri sever-jug in počasi rinejo proti zahodu. Severno od tega območja je Kurahovo in še višje Novogradivka.
Rusi potiskajo po vzpetinah preko mesta Očeretnje proti zahodu. Vzpetina od Očeretnje zavije južno proti Kurahovu. Pomojem bodo šli iz tu dol v smeri Vugledarja.

boolsheat je 16. maj 2024 ob 10:07:56 izjavil:

Glede na osumljenca, nek 71 letni kvazi pisatelj, bolj deluje, da je atentator izgubil razum, kot da gre za nek plot bodisi ruske bodisi zahodne strani...

Samo pravim.. da se ne bo kje izkazalo čez čas, da je bil ta 71 letni pisatelj kje neki "novodobni" (Gavrilo Princip).